Analysis and prediction of charging behaviors for private battery electric vehicles with regular commuting: A case study in Beijing

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) assume a critical role in the promotion of transportation electrification. Accurate analysis and prediction of BEVs charging behaviors are essential to solving the issues, such as electricity supply imbalance stemming from the BEVs increasing volume. To achieve that, the agent based trip chain model (ABTCM) and nested logit model (NL) are proposed in this study based on meter-level real-world data. In our investigation, not only the general charging patterns including trip chains distributions and dynamic attributes, but also the different charging strategies influencing mechanisms are profoundly estimated. The results demonstrate that most BEVs dispense with charging in the chain during one-day trips and users generally hold moderate range psychology before departure. For charging patterns, the longer people travel, the more inclined they are to adopt the fast charging strategy. The start moment SOC, consumed SOC, travel distance, the speed and weather, as well as all last charging status, are common significant factors for both slow charging and fast charging. The argument reveals that it is more applicable to consider charging scene context when exploring BEVs charging behaviors. Furthermore, the task of charging behaviors is conducted by the united NL model, which displays the effectiveness with accessible accuracy.

Automated summary

This study proposes agent-based trip chain model and nested logit model to accurately analyze and predict the charging behaviors of BEVs based on real-world data. The research shows that most BEVs do not require chain charging during one-day trips and users generally have moderate range psychology before departure. People tend to adopt fast charging strategy for longer travels. Start moment SOC, consumed SOC, travel distance, speed and weather, as well as last charging status, are significant factors for both slow charging and fast charging.