Habitat shifts of Jatropha curcas L. in the Asia-Pacific region under climate change scenarios

The cultivation of Jatropha curcas L. is important for alleviating the global energy crisis and improving the livelihoods of people in rural areas of developing countries. We hypothesized that the responses of Jatropha curcas L. to climate change would vary among latitudes. A species distribution model was used to illustrate the effects of climate change on habitats of Jatropha curcas L. in the Asia-Pacific region under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) during 2021-2060. The high-and medium-suitability areas obviously alternated in a stepwise manner near the borders of Jatropha habitats. Currently, the largest suitable habitats of Jatropha appear at 4 degrees S and 24 degrees N. Under future scenarios, the suitable habitats of Jatropha decreased in the region between 15 degrees N and 15 degrees S. The habitat boundary of Jatropha in the Northern Hemisphere shifted northward by 95.89 km and 127.35 km during 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, respectively. Furthermore, the shift in suitable habitat for Jatropha in the Northern Hemisphere was more pronounced than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The island regions of Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island countries should address the impact of climate change on biodiesel plant species by adopting different socioeconomic development paths and bioenergy strategies. (c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

The cultivation of Jatropha curcas L. is important for global energy crisis and rural livelihood improvement. The response of Jatropha curcas L. to climate change varies with latitude. The suitable habitats of Jatropha decreased and shifted northward in the Asia-Pacific region. Island regions should adopt different socioeconomic development paths and bioenergy strategies to address the impact of climate change on biodiesel plant species.