The impact of climate change on the future geographical distribution range of the endemic relict tree Gleditsia caspica (Fabaceae) in Hyrcanian forests

The Caspian locust (Gleditsia caspica) is an endemic relict tree that occurs in Hyrcanian forests. Many of its habitats have been destroyed in the last half-century. This study was performed to map past geographic distri-butions and estimate the suitable areas and potential risks of remaining populations under future climate change. Eight bioclimatic scenarios (one with current conditions, three with future climates, and four with past condi-tions) were tested using the maximum entropy algorithm. The most significant factors influencing the distri-butions of G. caspica were precipitation in the driest month and temperature seasonality. Even under the most optimistic model (RCP2.6), many stands of G. caspica may become endangered in the eastern and central parts of the range, and the distribution of this species will probably shift to the west of the Hyrcanian forest area. Considering the increasing destruction of habitats of this species due to human activities and the expected negative effects of climate change in the future, it is recommended that nature reserves be established to protect the habitat of G. caspica. Additionally, ex situ conservation strategies, such as storing seeds using cryopreser-vation techniques, can ensure the long-term survival of this species in the future.

Automated summary

This study aims to map the past geographic distributions and estimate the potential risks of the Caspian locust, as well as propose conservation measures such as establishing nature reserves and using cryopreservation techniques.