Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling-Guided Dose Management of Oral Anticoagulants when Initiating Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (Paxlovid) for COVID-19 Treatment

Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with cardiovascular diseases who are at higher risk of progressing to critical illness should be treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). Ritonavir, the booster in nirmatrelvir/ ritonavir, modulates multiple drug metabolizing enzymes and transporters, complicating its use in real-world clinics. We aimed to apply physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to simulate the complex drug -drug interactions (DDIs) of ritonavir with two anticoagulants, rivaroxaban and racemic warfarin, to address this important clinical conundrum. Simulations were implemented within Simcyp Simulator. Compound and population models were adopted from Simcyp and our previous studies. Upon verification and validation of the PBPK model of ritonavir, prospective DDI simulations with the anticoagulants were performed in both the general population (20-65 years) and geriatric subjects (65-85 years) with or without moderate renal impairment. Elevated rivaroxaban concentrations were simulated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment, where the impact was more profound among geriatric subjects with renal impairment. The overexposure of rivaroxaban was restored to normal range on day 4 post -discontinuation of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, corroborating with the recovery of enzyme activity. A lower 10 mg daily dose of rivaroxaban could effectively maintain acceptable systemic exposure of rivaroxaban during nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment. Treatment of ritonavir marginally declined simulated S-warfarin concentrations, but substantially elevated that of R- warfarin, resulting in a decrease in the international normalized ratio (INR). As INR only recovered 2 weeks post-nirmatrelvir/ ritonavir treatment, a longer surveillance INR for warfarin becomes important. Our PBPK-guided simulations evaluated clinically important yet untested DDIs and supports clinical studies to ensure proper anticoagulation management of patients with COVID--19 with chronic coagulative abnormalities when initiating nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy.

Automated summary

This study simulated the potential drug-drug interactions of ritonavir with anticoagulants rivaroxaban and warfarin in patients with COVID-19, using physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling. It was found that nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment could elevate rivaroxaban concentrations, especially in geriatric subjects with renal impairment, while lowering warfarin concentrations. Longer monitoring of warfarin's international normalized ratio (INR) becomes important in this context.