Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic

Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.

Automated summary

This study developed an age-structured epidemic model to analyze the first wave of Covid-19 in the Czech Republic. The findings suggest that implementing a lockdown four days earlier could prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of the lockdown period. Personal protective measures, such as wearing face masks, are more effective than reducing social contacts. The strategy of only protecting the elderly is not effective, and keeping schools open is risky.