期刊
BIOSYSTEMS ENGINEERING
卷 219, 期 -, 页码 259-267出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2022.05.006
关键词
Uncertainty analysis; Global sensitivity analysis; Risk; Timeliness; Agricultural management; Harvest planning
This paper presents a novel approach for characterizing uncertainty in the manual grape harvest of a winery in Tuscany. It builds a model to define useful output variables and assesses the range and importance of these variables through uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis. The approach can aid in risk characterization and efficient grape harvest management.
This contribution presents a novel approach to characterise uncertainty in the manual grape harvest of a winery in Tuscany (Italy). After identifying the potential sources of variability arising from randomness, weather, and management options, a model to define useful output variables is built. These output variables include the discrepancy in the harvest date of the vineyards (harvest date discrepancy), the discrepancy in the required workforce across harvest dates (labour discrepancy), and, finally, the potential deficit of working hours throughout the grape harvest campaign (labour deficit). The range spanned by these variables is first assessed through a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis wherein the model is repeated approximately 16,000 times with variable combinations of the input parameters per their probability distribution. The assessed uncertainty is then apportioned to the input parameters through a global sensitivity analysis. In turn, a regional sensitivity analysis characterises the circumstances producing a deficit of working hours, which corresponds to sufferance in the grape harvest campaign. The discussed approach could be implemented in a user-friendly decision-support tool for risk characterisation and efficient grape harvest management. (C) 2022 IAgrE. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据