Numbers and presence of guarding dogs affect wolf and leopard predation on livestock in northeastern Iran

Livestock predation can pose socio-economic impacts on rural livelihoods and is the main cause of retaliatory killings of carni-vores in many countries. Therefore, appropriate interventions to reduce livestock predation, lower conflict and promote coexistence are needed. Livestock guarding dogs have been traditionally used to reduce predation, yet details regarding the use of dogs, espe-cially the number of dogs per herd effectively required, are rarely studied. In this study, we assessed how the number and presence of guarding dogs in a herd can reduce livestock losses to leopard and wolf in corrals at night and on grazing grounds in day-time. Using systematic interview surveys (2016-2019), we documented sheep/goat losses per attack (predation rates) from 139 shepherds across 32 villages around Golestan National Park, Iran. We analysed the effects of the number of dogs, presence of dogs, presence of shepherds, seasons, corral quality, livestock number, dog size, distance to villages and distance to reserve on predation rates using generalized linear models. For the leopard model, dog presence significantly decreased (beta = -1.80, 95% confidence interval -2.61 to -0.81) predation rates during day-time to 1.41 individuals per attack. For wolf attacks in corrals at night, predation rates significantly decreased (beta = -0.29, -0.54 to -0.04) with increasing dog numbers. Also, shepherd presence (beta = -0.56, -1.10 to -0.10) and herd size (0 = -0.36, -0.60 to -0.12) significantly reduced predation rates. In the wolf day-time model, shepherd presence significantly decreased (beta = -0.93, -1.74 to -0.10) predation rates. Our study suggests that (1) using dogs can reduce, but not eliminate, predation by leopards during day-time; (2) with every additional dog, predation rates by wolves in corrals at night are likely to decrease on average by 25.2%; and (3) the presence of shepherds in corrals at night and during day-time can reduce predation rates.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH on behalf of Gesellschaft fur Okologie. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

Automated summary

Using dogs can reduce predation on livestock, although complete elimination is not possible. The presence of shepherds and the number of dogs can significantly decrease predation rates by wolves in corrals at night.