Mapping the spatial distribution of the invasive Mexican Sunflower Tithonia diversifolia (Asteraceae) in South East Asia

Invasive species and climate change act in tandem as a threat to local and regional biodiversity. Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) A.Gray (Asteraceae) is a known invasive plant in South East Asia. However, there has been no exploration regarding the invasion potential of T. diversifolia in the aforementioned region. Here, we modeled the current potential habitat and also compared three general circulation models in the year 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt modeling. Since there was a significant change in future potential habitat from current habitat with future potential ranges being in the Himalayas for GFDL-CM3 and Indonesia for HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. Due to the resultant discrepancy in future habitat range, ensemble approach was used. While the future potential habitat decreases, current habitat covers 7.99% of the total study area concentrated in the biodiversity hotspot regions. (C) 2022 National Science Museum of Korea (NSMK) and Korea National Arboretum (KNA), Publishing Services by Elsevier. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Automated summary

This study investigated the invasion potential of Tithonia diversifolia in Southeast Asia and predicted future changes in habitat using climate models. The results showed significant changes in the species' habitat from current to future, with potential ranges shifting to the Himalayas and Indonesia. The study highlights the importance of considering climate change in assessing the spread of invasive species.