Statistical Inference of Prehistoric Demography from Frequency Distributions of Radiocarbon Dates: A Review and a Guide for the Perplexed

The last decade saw a rapid increase in the number of studies where time-frequency changes of radiocarbon dates have been used as a proxy for inferring past population dynamics. Although its universal and straightforward premise is appealing and undoubtedly offers some unique opportunities for research on long-term comparative demography, practical applications are far from trivial and riddled with issues pertaining to the very nature of the proxy under examination. Here I review the most common criticisms concerning the nature of radiocarbon time-frequency data as a demographic proxy, focusing on key statistical and inferential challenges. I then examine and compare recent methodological advances in the field by grouping them into three approaches: reconstructive, null-hypothesis significance testing, and model fitting. I will then conclude with some general recommendations for applying these techniques in archaeological and paleo-demographic research.

Automated summary

In the last decade, there has been a rapid increase in studies using time-frequency changes of radiocarbon dates as a proxy for inferring past population dynamics. However, practical applications are not straightforward due to the nature of the proxy. This paper reviews the common criticisms and compares recent methodological advances in the field, concluding with recommendations for applying these techniques in archaeological and paleo-demographic research.