Does economic policy uncertainty drive nonlinear risk spillover in the commodity futures market?

We propose the rolling tail-event driven network technique (RTENET) to measure the dynamic nonlinear tail risk spillover of 20 US commodity futures. In addition, we investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on risk spillover based on quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR). We find that the risk spillover effect increases sharply and that the market is tightly connected when EPU is at a high level. Crude oil, silver and corn, the three greatest risk transmitters in the system, need more attention. More importantly, the effect of EPU on the risk spillover of the commodity futures market is asymmetric and heterogeneous. When the risk spillover falls within extremely high quantiles, a significant positive effect of EPU is observed. In addition, grain and soft crops are more sensitive to EPU. Our findings provide a reference for policy-makers and investors to manage commodity futures markets in different uncertainty periods.

Automated summary

This study proposes the rolling tail-event driven network technique to measure the dynamic nonlinear tail risk spillover of US commodity futures and investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty on risk spillover. The findings show that the risk spillover effect increases when economic policy uncertainty is high, and the market is tightly connected. Crude oil, silver, and corn require more attention as they are the major risk transmitters. Moreover, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on risk spillover in the commodity futures market is asymmetric and heterogeneous, with grain and soft crops being more sensitive.