4.6 Article

Foresighting future oceans: Considerations and opportunities

相关参考文献

注意:仅列出部分参考文献,下载原文获取全部文献信息。
Article Fisheries

The future of ocean governance

Bianca Haas et al.

Summary: Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers, including formal rules, evidence-based decision-making, legitimacy, stakeholder engagement, and community empowerment. Major risks include resource overexploitation, inequitable distribution of benefits, and inadequate adaptation to changing conditions. The future of ocean governance can vary between 'Business as Usual' and a 'More Sustainable Future', with structured actions needed to move towards the latter.

REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES (2022)

Article Fisheries

Developing achievable alternate futures for key challenges during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development

Kirsty L. Nash et al.

Summary: This article describes the Future Seas project, providing guidance for developing scenarios in interdisciplinary teams to explore the future of oceans. The interdisciplinary approach allows for integrating different perspectives on solutions, exploring interactions between Goal 14 of Life Under Water and other Sustainable Development Goals, and cross-disciplinary learning. This method enables participants to conceptualize shared visions of the future and co-design transformative pathways to achieve those futures.

REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES (2022)

Article Fisheries

Ocean resource use: building the coastal blue economy

Narissa Bax et al.

Summary: This study discusses human reliance on coastal resources, challenges stemming from technological advancements, and the need for sustainable development. It suggests collaboration among multidisciplinary teams and the use of case studies to identify pathways towards sustainable marine utilization.

REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES (2022)

Review Fisheries

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

Jess Melbourne-Thomas et al.

Summary: Climate change is causing marine ecosystems to shift, with species moving poleward, impacting human communities and fisheries. Actions in the next decade can help us adapt and achieve a more sustainable future. Improved monitoring, cooperation, and adaptive management are crucial for responding to the challenge of species redistribution.

REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES (2022)

Article Fisheries

Equity of our future oceans: practices and outcomes in marine science research

K. A. Alexander et al.

Summary: The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve inclusivity and equity diversity in society. In exploring sustainable futures for the oceans, a wide range of equity issues were recognized and considered, with a focus on reducing inequity and enhancing sustainability through action pathways. This study highlights the importance of improving equity in scientific knowledge production and practice within marine science research.

REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES (2022)

Article Fisheries

Oceans and society: feedbacks between ocean and human health

Kirsty L. Nash et al.

Summary: The concentration of human population along coastlines has significant impacts on ocean and societal health. Two scenarios for 2030 are proposed: 'Command and (out of) Control' focusing on the current trajectory, and 'Living and Connecting' emphasizing interactions between oceans and society to achieve Sustainable Development Goals. Actions towards the latter scenario include improving marine citizenship, equitable power distribution, economic incentives for sustainability, and stronger regulations for ocean and human health.

REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES (2022)

Article Fisheries

Empowering her guardians to nurture our Ocean's future

Mibu Fischer et al.

Summary: Coastal Indigenous and Traditional communities are facing challenges from climate change, but are hindered by governance structures, oppression, colonization, language barriers, and lack of agency in contributing to the current management of oceans and coasts. They are calling on scientists and practitioners to support them in becoming Earth's guardians and taking a leading role in shaping the future.

REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES (2022)

Article Fisheries

Cleaner seas: reducing marine pollution

Kathryn A. Willis et al.

Summary: The ocean is often seen as a sink for pollution in the Anthropocene era, with various types of pollution threatening marine ecosystems. Despite awareness and data on risks, there is a significant delay in implementing strategies to address marine pollution. Experts present two future scenarios and prioritize actions for governments, industry, and consumers to reduce pollution and move towards a more sustainable future.

REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES (2022)

Article Fisheries

Opportunities to improve ecosystem-based fisheries management by recognizing and overcoming path dependency and cognitive bias

Elizabeth Ann Fulton

Summary: The rate of change in marine ecosystems is faster than institutional change or management responses, with scientific warnings often being ignored. Major disruptions caused by climate change and COVID-19 offer an opportunity to introduce alternative approaches more suitable to the current global fisheries situation.

FISH AND FISHERIES (2021)

Review Environmental Sciences

The Quilt of Sustainable Ocean Governance: Patterns for Practitioners

Robert L. Stephenson et al.

Summary: This article discusses the different concepts and approaches in marine system management in recent years, proposing to integrate desirable features from these frameworks for more effective and equitable ocean governance. These concepts compete and operate separately, highlighting the importance of integrating and coordinating them to achieve comprehensive sustainability goals.

FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)

John K. Pinnegar et al.

Summary: This paper introduces exploratory scenarios focusing on European aquaculture and fisheries, designed through stakeholder workshops with different future worlds outlined using the PESTEL framework. The flexibility of the basic architecture in various scales is demonstrated, urging the adoption of a similar scenarios framework based on SSPs for global cross-comparison and communication on potential bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Five Questions to Understand Epistemology and Its Influence on Integrative Marine Research

Katie Moon et al.

Summary: Developing solutions for complex marine and coastal social-ecological issues requires new forms of knowledge production and integration. While progress has been made in producing integrated marine research and connecting that knowledge to decision-makers, challenges remain that hinder successful implementation of integrated research practices. Understanding and reconciling different epistemologies in various disciplines is identified as a key barrier to successful integrative marine research.

FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Article Agriculture, Multidisciplinary

Foresighting Australian digital agricultural futures: Applying responsible innovation thinking to anticipate research and development impact under different scenarios

Aysha Fleming et al.

Summary: This paper explores the role of digital technology in the future of Australian agriculture and the social and ethical implications through a participatory foresighting exercise. The scenarios developed highlight potential changes in farm business models and underscore the need for increased reflexivity in research and development to achieve positive outcomes. These scenarios provide a catalyst for conversation about the implications of digital technology development on a global scale.

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS (2021)

Article Environmental Studies

Full spectrum sustainability and a theory of access: Integrating social benefits into fisheries governance

Courtenay E. Parlee et al.

Summary: This paper proposes a new approach to incorporate social science analysis into a comprehensive sustainability framework to address management challenges related to sustainable resource use in fisheries.

MARINE POLICY (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Scenario-Based Approaches to Change Management in Fisheries Can Address Challenges With Scale and Support the Implementation of an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management

Louise Carin Gammage et al.

Summary: The Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) management aims for holistic, sustainable management of fisheries. Scenario-planning in marine social ecological systems (SES) can address challenges simultaneously at different scales of interaction. Implementing a prototype scenario-based approach in a small-scale fishery in South Africa has shown benefits for fishers and provided valuable insights into their marine SES.

FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Future Socio-political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Marine Fisheries Projections

Katell G. Hamon et al.

Summary: Climate change is expected to have direct consequences on European marine ecosystems and fisheries, with future developments in the fishing industry being impacted by various socio-economic and political factors. Robust modeling of the bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing sector must consider these factors and their potential interactions. The study used four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES and applied them to model projections of marine wild capture fisheries, emphasizing the importance of fuel and fish price development in the viability of fisheries.

FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Review Environmental Sciences

Intersecting Social Science and Conservation

Thomas Sanborn et al.

Summary: There is a growing consensus that current conservation strategies need to shift towards a people and nature approach, considering social impacts, equity issues, and social justice, especially important for marine conservation. Lack of compliance with management schemes and failure to consider the social dimensions of local communities have hindered the success of conservation initiatives. Increasing engagement with social science and a better understanding of human-wildlife and human-nature connections are necessary for improved participatory management.

FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Aiding ocean development planning with SDG relationships in Small Island Developing States

Gerald G. Singh et al.

Summary: This study finds that in Aruba, prioritizing benefits from sustainable marine development leads to the greatest amount of direct co-benefits to other SDGs, with reducing marine pollution being a key supporting target to achieve SDGs. Sustainable ocean development in Aruba depends on international partnerships to address global issues, including climate change mitigation, over which it has little control. Coordination across economic, social, and international policy institutions is crucial for sustainable marine development.

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Advancing Social Equity in and Through Marine Conservation

Nathan J. Bennett et al.

Summary: This article highlights the importance of social equity in marine conservation, emphasizing the need for recognition, fair distribution, procedures, management, environment, and addressing structural barriers to inequality. It calls on various stakeholders in the marine conservation sector, including governments, NGOs, and donors, to commit to pursuing socially equitable conservation efforts.

FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE (2021)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Six modes of co-production for sustainability

Josephine M. Chambers et al.

Summary: Co-production is a method that combines research and practice to promote sustainable development, involving diverse goals, terminologies, and practices. By comparing 32 projects from around the world, the study found diversity in co-production methods, including differences in understanding and application of objectives, power, politics, and impact pathways. The analysis identified various modes of co-production, each with unique potential and challenges.

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY (2021)

Article Biodiversity Conservation

Fostering ocean empathy through future scenarios

Jessica Blythe et al.

Summary: This study found that exposing participants to optimistic or pessimistic future scenarios of the oceans can promote empathy for the oceans. While the pessimistic scenario led to higher levels of empathy, there was no significant difference between the VR and written conditions, and empathy scores significantly decreased 3 months after the initial intervention.

PEOPLE AND NATURE (2021)

Article Environmental Studies

Blue growth and blue justice: Ten risks and solutions for the ocean economy

Nathan James Bennett et al.

Summary: As the ocean is seen as a new frontier for economic development, there are substantial risks for people and the environment, including issues of dispossession, pollution, impact on livelihoods, marginalization of women, human rights abuses, and exclusion from governance. The dominant discourse of blue growth needs to shift towards a more inclusive and just ocean economy that addresses the 10 identified risks of social injustice.

MARINE POLICY (2021)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios

Jessica Spijkers et al.

Summary: Recent studies have shown that global fishery resources are facing increasing pressures from overfishing and climate change, leading to a higher likelihood of fishery conflict. This paper presents four future fishery conflict scenarios based on expert workshops, international fishery conflict databases, and regional expert reviews, aiming to explore the implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions and support anticipatory governance for future ocean security.

ONE EARTH (2021)

Article Biodiversity Conservation

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Laura Pereira et al.

Summary: To effectively contribute to global environmental decision-making, GEAs need diverse future tools operating at multiple scales to address challenges like anticipating unpredictable conditions, being relevant at different levels, including diverse actors and perspectives, and leveraging imagination to inspire action. By utilizing a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods, GEAs can better meet the information needs of policymakers and stakeholders.

ECOSYSTEMS AND PEOPLE (2021)

Article Ecology

Economics for the future - Beyond the superorganism

N. J. Hagens

ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS (2020)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Effective fisheries management instrumental in improving fish stock status

Ray Hilborn et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

A Theoretical Research Framework of Future Sustainable Urban Freight Transport for Smart Cities

Zhangyuan He et al.

SUSTAINABILITY (2020)

Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

We need a global movement to transform ocean science for a better world

Linwood Pendleton et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2020)

Editorial Material Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Imagining transformative biodiversity futures

Carina Wyborn et al.

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY (2020)

Review Environmental Studies

Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance: Different conceptions of the future and implications for the present

Karlijn Muiderman et al.

WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

Alistair J. Hobday et al.

ONE EARTH (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

The Blue Acceleration: The Trajectory of Human Expansion into the Ocean

Jean-Baptiste Jouffray et al.

ONE EARTH (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research

Albert Norstrom et al.

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY (2020)

Article Environmental Studies

Social licence for marine protected areas

Rachel Kelly et al.

MARINE POLICY (2020)

Article Environmental Studies

Effective integration and integrative capacity in marine spatial planning

Joanna Vince et al.

MARITIME STUDIES (2020)

Article Biodiversity Conservation

The voices of youth in envisioning positive futures for nature and people

Sakshi Rana et al.

ECOSYSTEMS AND PEOPLE (2020)

Review Environmental Sciences

Proactive, Reactive, and Inactive Pathways for Scientists in a Changing World

Karlie S. McDonald et al.

EARTHS FUTURE (2019)

Review Environmental Sciences

Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices

Keith Wiebe et al.

ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES, VOL 43 (2018)

Article Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary

On some fundamental methodological aspects in foresight processes

Michael Lauster et al.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FUTURES RESEARCH (2018)

Article Environmental Sciences

The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century

Brian C. O'Neill et al.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS (2017)

Review Ecology

Planetary boundaries for a blue planet

Kirsty L. Nash et al.

NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION (2017)

Article Business

Foresighting for inclusive development

Allan Dahl Andersen et al.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE (2017)

Review Business

The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review

Jon Iden et al.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE (2017)

Article Business

Regional foresight and dynamics of smart specialization: A typology of regional diversification patterns

Kalle A. Piirainen et al.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE (2017)

Article Ecology

Modelling and attitudes towards the future

Fabio Boschetti et al.

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING (2016)

Article Environmental Sciences

Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda

Xuemei Bai et al.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS (2016)

Article Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary

Foresighting organizational learning equilibrium in European universities

Stig A. Selmer-Anderssen et al.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FUTURES RESEARCH (2016)

Article Engineering, Environmental

Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience

Emily Boyd et al.

Editorial Material Medicine, General & Internal

Physicians and climate change policy: We are powerful agents of change

Kirsten Patrick

CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL (2015)

Article Veterinary Sciences

Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease

Lisa A. Boden et al.

PREVENTIVE VETERINARY MEDICINE (2015)

Article Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output

Ozcan Saritas et al.

SCIENTOMETRICS (2015)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

Benjamin S. Halpern et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2015)

Review Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: pathways from anticipation to action

V. J. Brookes et al.

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION (2015)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Citizens' Views of Australia's Future to 2050

Fabio Boschetti et al.

SUSTAINABILITY (2015)

Article Business

Theory of and within foresight - What does a theory of foresight even mean?

Kalle A. Piirainen et al.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE (2015)

Review History & Philosophy Of Science

Understanding 'anticipatory governance'

David H. Guston

SOCIAL STUDIES OF SCIENCE (2014)

Review Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary

Foresight in support of European research and innovation policies: The European Commission is preparing the funding of grand societal challenges

Jean-Claude Burgelman et al.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FUTURES RESEARCH (2014)

Article Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary

Design and application for a replicable foresight methodology bridging quantitative and qualitative expert data

Jan Erik Karlsen

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FUTURES RESEARCH (2014)

Article Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary

What corporations do with foresight

Mohamad S. Hammoud et al.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FUTURES RESEARCH (2014)

Article Psychology, Multidisciplinary

Strategies for Promoting Proenvironmental Behavior Lots of Tools but Few Instructions

P. Wesley Schultz

EUROPEAN PSYCHOLOGIST (2014)

Article Regional & Urban Planning

Foresight evaluation: lessons from project management

Ekaterina A. Makarova et al.

FORESIGHT (2014)

Article Business

Beyond the veil - The real value of Foresight

Effie Amanatidou

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE (2014)

Article Environmental Sciences

Opening up knowledge systems for better responses to global environmental change

Sarah Cornell et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY (2013)

Article Environmental Sciences

Examining equity: A multidimensional framework for assessing equity in payments for ecosystem services

Melanie McDermott et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY (2013)

Article Business

Shell scenarios: What really happened in the 1970s and what may be learned for current world prospects

Michael Jefferson

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE (2012)

Article Psychology, Experimental

Episodic memory versus episodic foresight: similarities and differences

Thomas Suddendorf

WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-COGNITIVE SCIENCE (2010)

Article Regional & Urban Planning

The influence of futures work on public policy and sustainability

Chris Riedy

FORESIGHT (2009)

Article Regional & Urban Planning

How are foresight methods selected?

Rafael Popper

FORESIGHT (2008)