Modified aquila optimizer for forecasting oil production

Oil production estimation plays a critical role in economic plans for local governments and organizations. Therefore, many studies applied different Artificial Intelligence (AI) based methods to estimate oil production in different countries. The Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is a well-known model that has been successfully employed in various applications, including time-series forecasting. However, the ANFIS model faces critical shortcomings in its parameters during the configuration process. From this point, this paper works to solve the drawbacks of the ANFIS by optimizing ANFIS parameters using a modified Aquila Optimizer (AO) with the Opposition-Based Learning (OBL) technique. The main idea of the developed model, AOOBL-ANFIS, is to enhance the search process of the AO and use the AOOBL to boost the performance of the ANFIS. The proposed model is evaluated using real-world oil production datasets collected from different oilfields using several performance metrics, including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R-2), Standard Deviation (Std), and computational time. Moreover, the AOOBL-ANFIS model is compared to several modified ANFIS models include Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)-ANFIS, Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO)-ANFIS, Sine Cosine Algorithm (SCA)-ANFIS, Slime Mold Algorithm (SMA)-ANFIS, and Genetic Algorithm (GA)-ANFIS, respectively. Additionally, it is compared to well-known time series forecasting methods, namely, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and Neural Network (NN). The outcomes verified the high performance of the AOOBL-ANFIS, which outperformed the classic ANFIS model and the compared models.

Automated summary

This study optimizes the parameters of the ANFIS model using a modified Aquila Optimizer with Opposition-Based learning technique to improve the accuracy of oil production estimation. The proposed AOOBL-ANFIS model outperforms the classic ANFIS model and other compared models, as validated by real-world oil production datasets and various performance metrics.