期刊
ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
卷 13, 期 3, 页码 385-396出版社
KEAI PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2022.04.005
关键词
Integrated assessment models; Climate damage; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Representative concentration pathways; China
资金
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFA0606503]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71673162, 71690243]
This study quantifies climate damage in China by comparing estimates from different models. The costs of climate damage are approximately 1.5% and 0.7% of China's GDP and global GDP per 1 ??C temperature rise on average, respectively. Mitigation measures can significantly reduce climate risks. Further research is needed to improve estimates of damage in different sectors.
Quantifying climate damage is essential to informing rational climate policies, but only a few studies have systematically compared the climate damage estimates made by different models, especially for China. In this study, we used three widely applied integrated assessment modelsdFUND, RICE, and PAGEdto estimate the damage under coupled shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results show that the costs of climate damage constitute approximately 1.5% and 0.7% of China's GDP and global GDP per 1 ??C temperature rise on average, respectively. Mitigation can reduce climate risk by lowering the average estimate and worst-case effects of climate damage. Compared with business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5), the 2 ??C target will reduce the average estimate of climate damage for China and the world by 93% and 87%, respectively, and by 80% and 84%, respectively, in the worst-case situation. Sectorial analysis of climate damage highlights the inconsistency of sector scope and significant parameter uncertainties in damage modules, requiring further improvement to integrate subfield research advances, particularly for damage related to rising sea levels and cooling energy demand.
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