Modeling potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global electric vehicle supply chain

The on-going COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns cast significant impacts on global economy in the short run. Their impact on stability of global electric vehicles (EVs) supply chain and thus our climate ambition in the long run, however, remains hitherto largely unexplored. We aim to address this gap based on an integrated model framework, including assessing supply risks of 17 selected core commodities throughout the EV supply chain and further applying the supply constraints to project future EV sales until 2030. Our model results under three pandemic development scenarios indicate that if the pandemic is effectively contained before 2024, the global EV industry will recover without fundamentally scathed and thus can maintain the same growth trend as in the no-pandemic scenario by 2030. We suggest that fiscal stimulus in the postpandemic era should be directed more toward upgrading the quality of battery products, rather than expanding the production capacity.

Automated summary

The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns have significant impacts on the global economy in the short run. However, their long-term effects on the stability of the global electric vehicles supply chain and climate goals have not been thoroughly explored. The study suggests that if the pandemic can be effectively controlled before 2024, the global EV industry can recover and maintain the same growth trend. The authors recommend directing post-pandemic fiscal stimulus towards improving the quality of battery products.