Speed of technological transformations required in Europe to achieve different climate goals

Europe's contribution to global warming will be determined by the cumulative emissions until climate neutrality is achieved. Here, we investigate alternative transition paths under different carbon budgets. We use PyPSA-Eur-Sec, an open model of the sector-coupled European energy system with high spatial and temporal resolution. All the paths entail similar technological transformations, but the timing of the scale-up of important technologies like electrolysis, carbon capture, and hydrogen network differs. Solar PV and onshore and offshore wind become the cornerstone of a net-zero energy system, enabling the decarbonization of other sectors via direct electrification (heat pumps and electric vehicles) or indirect electrification (using synthetic fuels). For a social cost of carbon (SCC) of 120(sic)/tCO(2), transition paths under 1.5 and 1.6 degrees C budgets are, respectively, 8% and 1% more expensive than the 2 degrees C budget because building assets earlier costs more. The 1.5 degrees C budget is cost optimal if a SCC of at least 300(sic)/tCO(2) is considered.

Automated summary

This article investigates alternative transition paths for the European energy system under different carbon budgets. The study finds that solar PV and wind energy are key to achieving a net-zero energy system, and direct or indirect electrification can be used to decarbonize other sectors.