期刊
FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH
卷 10, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.786071
关键词
climate change; food security; trade; food system resilience; adaptation; water stress; environmental change; climate vulnerability
资金
- Wellcome Trust Our Planet Our Heath Programme [216021/Z/19/Z]
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) [KA 4815/1-1]
- Medical Research Council (UK)
- Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement [MC-A760-5QX00]
- Wellcome Trust [216021/Z/19/Z] Funding Source: Wellcome Trust
The coexistence of under- and overnutrition is a growing public health concern in The Gambia. The reliance on other climate-vulnerable countries for the supply of nutritionally important crops and the projected water stress in the future pose significant challenges to the availability and affordability of these crops.
BackgroundThe coexistence of under- and overnutrition is of increasing public health concern in The Gambia. Fruits, vegetables and pulses are essential to healthy and sustainable diets, preventing micronutrient deficiencies and non-communicable diseases, while cereals significantly contribute to energy intake. However, environmental changes are predicted to intensify, reducing future yields of these crops if agricultural productivity and resilience are not improved. The Gambia is highly climate-vulnerable and import-dependent, but the extent of its reliance on other climate-vulnerable countries for its supply of nutritionally important crops is currently unknown. MethodsWe used United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, with novel origin-tracing algorithms applied, to analyse The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses between 1988 and 2018. The climate vulnerability of countries was assessed using Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores, and projected water stress (2040) assessed using World Resources Institute (WRI) scores. Multilevel generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to identify changes in the overall climate vulnerability and projected water stress of supply. ResultsBetween 1988 and 2018, The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses diversified, with the proportion domestically produced falling (Cereals: 61.4%-27.7%; Fruits: 93.0%-55.7%; Vegetables: 24.6%-16.3%; Pulses: 100.0%-76.0%). The weighted-average ND-GAIN scores improved (indicating less climate vulnerability) for supply of all crops except cereals, but the weighted-average WRI score for supply deteriorated (indicating increased projected water stress) for all crops except vegetables. When just considering imports, weighted-average ND-GAIN scores deteriorated for fruits and cereals while showing no significant change for other food groups, and the WRI score deteriorated for cereals only. ConclusionsDespite some notable improvements in the environmental vulnerability of The Gambia's supply of nutritionally important crops (particularly vegetables), considerable, and in some cases increasing, proportions of their supply are produced in countries that are vulnerable to climate change and future water stress. This may have implications for the availability, affordability, and hence consumption of these crops in The Gambia, ultimately exacerbating existing nutritional challenges. Exploring the options to strengthen supply resilience-such as altering trade patterns, agricultural techniques and diets-should be prioritized.
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