Population-Level Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Program in the United States: Causal Analysis Based on Structural Nested Mean Model

Though COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy, real-world effectiveness at the population level remains unclear. Based on the longitudinal data on vaccination coverage and daily infection cases from fifty states in the United States from March to May 2021, causal analyses were conducted using structural nested mean models to estimate the population-level effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program against infection with the original strain. We found that in the US, every 1% increase of vaccination coverage rate reduced the weekly growth rate of COVID-19 confirmed cases by 1.02% (95% CI: 0.26%, 1.69%), and the estimated population-level effectiveness of the COVID-19 program was 63.9% (95% CI: 18.0%, 87.5%). In comparison to a no-vaccination scenario, the COVID-19 vaccination campaign averted 8.05 million infections through the study period. Scenario analyses show that a vaccination program with doubled vaccination speed or with more rapid vaccination speed at the early stages of the campaign would avert more infections and increase vaccine effectiveness. The COVID-19 vaccination program demonstrated a high population-level effectiveness and significantly reduced the disease burden in the US. Accelerating vaccine rollout, especially at an early stage of the campaign, is crucial for reducing COVID-19 infections.

Automated summary

Although COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy, their real-world effectiveness at the population level remains unclear. A study conducted in the United States from March to May 2021 found that a 1% increase in vaccination coverage rate was associated with a 1.02% decrease in the weekly growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The estimated population-level effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program was 63.9%. The study also showed that the vaccination program averted 8.05 million infections during the study period. Accelerating vaccine rollout, especially at the early stages of the campaign, is crucial for reducing COVID-19 infections.