Deep learning for predicting immunotherapeutic efficacy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients: a retrospective study combining progression-free survival risk and overall survival risk

Background: Radiomics based on computed tomography ( CT) images is potential in promoting individualized treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), however, its role in immunotherapy needs further exploration. The aim of this study was to develop a CT-based radiomics score to predict the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) monotherapy in patients with advanced NSCLC. Methods: Two hundred and thirty-six ICI-treated patients were retrospectively included and divided into a training cohort (n=188) and testing cohort (n=48) at a ratio of 8 to 2. The efficacy outcomes of ICI were evaluated based on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). We designed a survival network and combined it with a Cox regression model to obtain patients' OS risk score (OSRS) and PFS risk score (PFSRS). Results: Based on OSRS and PFSRS, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups in the training cohort and the test cohort with distinctly different [training cohort, log-rank P<0.001, hazard ratio (HR): 4.14; test cohort, log-rank P=0.014, HR: 4.54] and PFS (training cohort, log-rank P<0.001, HR: 4.52; test cohort, log-rank P<0.001, HR: 6.64). Further joint evaluation of OSRS and PFSRS showed that both were significant in the Cox regression model (P<0.001), and multi-overall survival risk score (MOSRS) displayed more outstanding stratification capabilities than OSRS in both the training (P<0.001) and test cohorts (P=0.002). None of the clinical characteristics were significant in the Cox regression model, and the score that predicted the best immune response was not as good as the risk score from follow-up information in the performance of prognostic stratification. Conclusions: We developed a CT imaging-based score with the potential to become an independent prognostic factor to screen patients who would benefit from ICI treatment, which suggested that CT radiomics could be applied for individualized immunotherapy of NSCLC. Our findings should be further validated by future larger multicenter study.

Automated summary

In this study, a CT imaging-based score was developed to predict the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitor monotherapy in advanced NSCLC patients. The score successfully stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups and showed better prognostic capabilities than clinical characteristics. The score also outperformed the best immune response score in prognostic stratification.