Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach to study the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are mainly performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other prefectures of Japan are also briefly surveyed. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproduction number is one of the main outcomes of our approach. Other unknown parameters are also evaluated. Uncertain quantities, such as, for example, the probability that an infected agent develops symptoms, are tested and discussed, and the stability of our computations is examined. Detailed explanations are provided for the model and for the assimilation process.

Automated summary

This paper presents an agent-based model and a particle filter approach for studying the spread of COVID-19. The research focuses mainly on Tokyo but also briefly surveys other prefectures in Japan. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproduction number and other unknown parameters is introduced. The stability of the computations and the testing and discussion of uncertain quantities are also examined.