The Ratio of the Land Consumption Rate to the Population Growth Rate: A Framework for the Achievement of the Spatiotemporal Pattern in Poland and Lithuania

Indicator 11.3. 1 of the 2030 sustainable development goals (SDG) 11, i.e., the ratio of the land use to the population growth rate, is currently classified by the United Nations as a Tier II indicator, as there is a globally-accepted methodology for its calculation, but the data are not available, nor are not regularly updated. Recently, the increased availability of remotely sensed data and products allows not only for the calculation of the SDG 11.3. 1, but also for its monitoring at different levels of detail. That is why this study aims to address the interrelationships between population development and land use changes in Poland and Lithuania, two neighboring countries in Central and Eastern Europe, using the publicly available remotely sensed products, CORINE land cover and GHS-POP. The paper introduces a map modelling process that starts with data transformation through GIS analyses and results in the geovisualisation of the LCRPGR (land use efficiency), the PGR (population growth rate), and the LCR (land use rate). We investigated the spatial patterns of the index values by utilizing hotspot analyses, autocorrelations, and outlier analyses. The results show how the indicators' values were concentrated in both countries; the average value of SDG 11.3. 1, from 2000 to 2018 in Poland amounted to 0.115 and, in Lithuania, to -0.054. The average population growth ratio (PGR) in Poland equaled 0.0132, and in Lithuania, it was -0.0067, while the average land consumption ratios (LCRs) were 0.0462 and 0.0067, respectively. Areas with an increase in built-up areas were concentrated mainly on the outskirts of large cities, whereas outliers of the LCRPGR index were mainly caused by the uncertainty of the source data and the way the indicator is interpreted.

Automated summary

This study examines the interrelationships between population development and land use changes in Poland and Lithuania using remotely sensed data. The results reveal that the indicators are concentrated in both countries, with an increase in built-up areas mainly observed on the outskirts of large cities.