Concurrent Heat Waves and Extreme Ozone (O3) Episodes: Combined Atmospheric Patterns and Impact on Human Health

More recurrent heat waves and extreme ozone (O-3) episodes are likely to occur during the next decades and a key question is about the concurrence of those hazards, the atmospheric patterns behind their appearance, and their joint effect on human health. In this work, we use surface maximum temperature and O-3 observations during extended summers in two cities from Morocco: Casablanca and Marrakech, between 2010 and 2019. We assess the connection between these data and climate indices (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), and Saharan Oscillation (SaO)). We then identify concurrent heat waves and O-3 episodes, the weather type behind this concurrence, and the combined health risks. Our findings show that the concurrence of heat waves and O-3 episodes depends both on the specific city and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The likely identified synoptic pattern is when the country is under the combined influence of an anticyclonic area in the north and the Saharan trough extending the depression centered in the south. This pattern generates a warm flow and may foster photochemical pollution. Our study is the first step toward the establishment of an alert system. It will help to provide recommendations for coping with concurrent heat waves and air pollution episodes.

Automated summary

More recurrent heat waves and extreme ozone episodes are likely to occur in the next few decades. This study examined data from two cities in Morocco and found that the concurrence of heat waves and ozone episodes depends on specific cities and atmospheric circulation. This research can help establish an alert system and provide recommendations for coping with concurrent heat waves and air pollution episodes.