Questioning the seasonality of SARS-COV-2: a Fourier spectral analysis

Objectives To investigate the hypothesis of a seasonal periodicity, driven by climate, in the contagion resurgence of COVID-19 in the period February 2020-December 2021. Design An observational study of 30 countries from different geographies and climates. For each country, a Fourier spectral analysis was performed with the series of the daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, looking for peaks in the frequency spectrum that could correspond to a recurrent cycle of a given length. Settings Public data of the daily SARS-CoV-2 infections from 30 different countries and five continents. Participants Only publicly available data were utilised for this study, patients and/or the public were not involved in any phase of this study. Results All the 30 investigated countries have seen the recurrence of at least one COVID-19 wave, repeating over a period in the range 3-9 months, with a peak of magnitude at least half as large as that of the highest peak ever experienced since the beginning of the pandemic until December 2021. The distance in days between the two highest peaks in each country was computed and then averaged over the 30 countries, yielding a mean of 190 days (SD 100). This suggests that recurrent outbreaks may repeat with cycles of different lengths, without a precisely predictable seasonality of 1 year. Conclusion Our findings suggest that COVID-19 outbreaks are likely to occur worldwide, with cycles of repetition of variable lengths. The Fourier analysis of 30 different countries has not found evidence in favour of a seasonality that recurs over 1year period, solely or with a precisely fixed periodicity.

Automated summary

The study investigated the hypothesis of seasonal periodicity in the resurgence of COVID-19, finding that outbreaks occur worldwide with cycles of variable lengths. The analysis of 30 countries did not find evidence supporting a fixed seasonality recurring over a 1-year period.