Estimation of farmworkers' exposure to heat extremes in upcoming years in the southern part of Iran

Excessive ambient air temperature due to global warming and climate change is capable of imposing heat stress on outdoor workers. This study had a quantitative, secondary, and analytical design. The present study aimed at modelling the trend of climate change by Hadley atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (HadCM) and Long Ashton Climate Generator (LARS) to predict future climate change trends, and determining heat stress in exposed farmworkers with high working energy demand who work full time in the unsheltered farm area. In this study, the data of the three synoptic metrological monitoring stations (located at the cities of Dezful (32.3831 degrees N, 48.4236 degrees E), Ahvaz (31.3183 degrees N, 48.6706 degrees E), and Dehdez (31.7011 degrees N, 50.2946 degrees E)) in a 30 years duration (1986-2016) was used. To predict the future trend of air temperature, HadCM and LARS were applied. Also, the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index was used to determine heat stress. The results showed that the temperature will increase throughout the coming years in the 3 cities (Ahvaz, Dezful, and Dehdez). The determination coefficient (R-2) ranges from 0.91 to 0.96 for the results. The rise of temperature rate between the time duration of 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 will be about 5 degrees C, and the WBGT indexes in June, July, and August were obtained as very hot (danger; > 28 degrees C). And the rate of increase in air temperature in the city of Ahvaz will be higher than in the other two cities. According to the results, it was revealed that heat stress coincidence with global warming will increase and exposure to heat for farmworkers will be much more severe.

Automated summary

This study models the future climate change trends in three cities and highlights the increased heat stress on farmworkers due to global warming and high ambient air temperatures.