期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 13, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28835-2
关键词
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资金
- Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad OPERMO [CGL2017-89859-R]
- CRETUS strategic partnership [AGRUP2015/02]
- European Union ERDF
- Xunta de Galicia [ED481A-2019/112]
- FPI [PRE2018-084425]
- Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities
- Santiago de Compostela, Galicia and Spain
Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity in the future. Climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. Based on climate model projections, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mainly in the Boreal and Temperate zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. These estimates highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth's environment.
Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth's environment.
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