Global diversity dynamics in the fossil record are regionally heterogeneous

Global diversity trends in the fossil record vary regionally through time and space, affecting our ability to interpret macroevolutionary history. Here, the authors propose a method to eliminate spatial sampling bias, estimate origination and extinction rates, and generate diversity estimates, applying this method to the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record. Global diversity patterns in the fossil record comprise a mosaic of regional trends, underpinned by spatially non-random drivers and distorted by variation in sampling intensity through time and across space. Sampling-corrected diversity estimates from spatially-standardised fossil datasets retain their regional biogeographic nuances and avoid these biases, yet diversity-through-time arises from the interplay of origination and extinction, the processes that shape macroevolutionary history. Here we present a subsampling algorithm to eliminate spatial sampling bias, coupled with advanced probabilistic methods for estimating origination and extinction rates and a Bayesian method for estimating sampling-corrected diversity. We then re-examine the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record, an interval spanning several global biotic upheavals that shaped the origins of the modern marine biosphere. We find that origination and extinction rates are regionally heterogenous even during events that manifested globally, highlighting the need for spatially explicit views of macroevolutionary processes through geological time.

Automated summary

Global diversity trends in the fossil record vary regionally and temporally, and are affected by spatial sampling bias. This study proposes a method to eliminate this bias and estimate origination and extinction rates, generating more accurate diversity estimates. The results reveal that even during global biotic upheavals, origination and extinction rates are regionally heterogeneous, emphasizing the importance of considering spatially explicit macroevolutionary processes.