Contrasting influences of biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of historical land use on global economic inequality

Historical land use impacts climate by biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. Their combined effects on mean and extreme temperature may harm economically disadvantaged countries but benefit those in rich countries, raising questions of equality. Climate change has significant implications for macro-economic growth. The impacts of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols on economies via altered annual mean temperature (AMT) have been studied. However, the economic impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is still unknown because it has both biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts on temperature and the latter differs in latitudes and disturbed land surface types. In this work, based on multi-model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, contrasting influences of biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of historical (1850-2014) LULCC on economies are found. Their combined effects on AMT result in warming in most countries, which harms developing economies in warm climates but benefits developed economies in cold climates. Thus, global economic inequality is increased. Besides the increased AMT by the combined effects, day-to-day temperature variability is enhanced in developing economies but reduced in developed economies, which further deteriorates global economic inequality.

Automated summary

Historical land use has both biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects on climate, impacting mean and extreme temperature. While economically disadvantaged countries are harmed, rich countries benefit, leading to increased global economic inequality. Additionally, developing economies experience enhanced day-to-day temperature variability, further exacerbating global economic inequality.