Towards a low-carbon and circular economy: Scenarios for metal stocks and flows in the Dutch electricity system

Despite many studies of the metal requirements for a transition towards low-carbon electricity system, the potential of the electricity system as a source for secondary material remains underexplored. We addressed this gap, the potential circularity of the electricity system, by analyzing the stocks and flows in that system towards 2050, including electricity generation, storage and transmission technologies, for both bulk metals and critical minor metals. Our model was applied to the Netherlands and was based upon detailed energy scenarios, presenting various governance structures for the Dutch energy transition. We show that the transition towards a low-carbon electricity system results in a strong growth of metal stocks and flows, both for bulk metals and for minor metals, especially for scenarios with higher levels of self-sufficiency in (renewable) electricity generation. These scenarios also show larger discrepancies between in and outflows. However, metal demand could decline substantially if material efficiencies improve, or when technologies with lower material intensities are chosen, especially for critical raw materials. While the potential for urban mining grows over time, at present a significant share of decommissioned components of the electricity system turns into hibernating stocks and remains unused, resulting in a missed opportunity for repurposing of valuable metals. National policies could therefore be aimed at maximizing collection of metals from the urban mine, together with the deployment of recycling capacity and stimulating material efficiency through technological development.

Automated summary

The potential circularity of the electricity system as a source for secondary material remains underexplored. A transition towards a low-carbon electricity system results in a strong growth of metal stocks and flows, especially for scenarios with higher levels of self-sufficiency in electricity generation. Metal demand could decline substantially if material efficiencies improve or technologies with lower material intensities are chosen. National policies should focus on maximizing metal collection from the urban mine and promoting recycling capacity and material efficiency.