Full-coverage mapping and spatiotemporal variations of ground-level ozone (O3) pollution from 2013 to 2020 across China

Ozone (O3) is an important trace and greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, posing a threat to the ecological environment and human health at the ground level. Large-scale and long-term studies of O3 pollution in China are few due to highly limited direct ground and satellite measurements. This study offers a new perspective to estimate ground-level O3 from solar radiation intensity and surface temperature by employing an extended ensemble learning of the space-time extremely randomized trees (STET) model, together with ground-based observations, remote sensing products, atmospheric reanalysis, and an emission inventory. A full-coverage (100%), high-resolution (10 km) and high-quality daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ground-level O3 dataset covering China (called ChinaHighO3) from 2013 to 2020 was generated. Our MDA8 O3 estimates (predictions) are reliable, with an average out-of-sample (out-of-station) coefficient of determination of 0.87 (0.80) and root-mean-square error of 17.10 (21.10) mu g/m3 in China. The unique advantage of the full coverage of our dataset allowed us to accurately capture a short-term severe O3 pollution exposure event that took place from 23 April to 8 May in 2020. Also, a rapid increase and recovery of O3 concentrations associated with variations in anthropogenic emissions were seen during and after the COVID-19 lockdown, respectively. Trends in O3 concentration showed an average growth rate of 2.49 mu g/m3/yr (p < 0.001) from 2013 to 2020, along with the continuous expansion of polluted areas exceeding the daily O3 standard (i.e., MDA8 O3 = 160 mu g/m3). Summertime O3 concentrations and the probability of occurrence of daily O3 pollution have significantly increased since 2015, especially in the North China Plain and the main air pollution transmission belt (i.e., the 2 + 26 cities). However, a decline in both was seen in 2020, mainly due to the coordinated control of air pollution and ongoing COVID-19 effects. This carefully vetted and smoothed dataset is valuable for studies on air pollution and environmental health in China.

Automated summary

This study presents a new method to estimate ground-level ozone concentrations in China using solar radiation intensity and surface temperature. The generated dataset provides reliable and valuable information, including short-term severe ozone pollution events and the rapid increase and recovery of ozone concentrations associated with changes in anthropogenic emissions. The study also reveals an increase in summertime ozone concentrations and the probability of daily ozone pollution since 2015, with a decline observed in 2020 due to air pollution control measures and the COVID-19 pandemic.