Population density impact on COVID-19 mortality rate: A multifractal analysis using French data

The current COVID-19 pandemic caught everyone off guard and is an excellent case study to investigate the real impact of population density on emerging highly contagious infectious diseases. The relationship between the threat of COVID-19 and population density has been widely debated not only in scientific articles, but also in magazines and reports around the world. It appeared both in the columns of experts and in the speeches of politicians, yet without reaching any consensus. In this study, using COVID19 data from France, we try to shed light on this debate. An alternative density measure, weighted by population, is used. This novel density measure clearly outperforms the commonly used density in terms of relationship with COVID-19 deaths and proved to be competitive with some of the best known predictors, including population. A multifractal analysis, characterizing different space distributions of population in France, is used to further understand the relation between density and COVID-19 mortality rate. (c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

The relationship between COVID-19 threat and population density has been widely debated, and this study uses COVID-19 data from France to explore this topic. An alternative density measure, weighted by population, is used and proves to be a better predictor of COVID-19 deaths compared to the commonly used density measure. Additionally, a multifractal analysis is conducted to understand the relation between density and COVID-19 mortality rate.