An integrated risk analysis model for corroded pipelines subjected to internal pressures: Considering the interacting effects

The interacting effects were demonstrated to reduce the burst capacity of corroded pipelines significantly, which would cause the potential risk if ignored. To address this point, this study presented an integrated risk analysis model of corroded pipelines subjected to internal pressures, considering the interacting effects. A user-defined program was designed to perform the finite element analysis (FEA) for any random input, and verified with the existing experiments. Furtherly, through the machine learning scheme, the FEA was linked with the Monte Carlo Simulation to estimate the failure probabilities. Through a case study, the failure risk of pipelines with single defect and interacting defects were analyzed, and the effect of the interval space between interacting defects with the failure mechanism was discussed. Moreover, the influence of the uncertainties from the considered stochastic variables was investigated. The results show that the interacting effects increased at most 65% of the failure risk. The failure probability was in a non-linear relationship with the interval space owing to the changing sensitivity of the burst capacity to the interval space. The uncertainties of the wall thickness and the growth rate of the corrosion depth had pronounced impacts on the failure risk. The corresponding changing characteristics were explained.

Automated summary

This study demonstrates the significant impact of interacting effects on the failure risk of corroded pipelines, highlighting a non-linear relationship between failure probability and interval space. The uncertainties of stochastic variables also play an important role in determining failure risk.