期刊
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
卷 54, 期 1, 页码 303-312出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12701
关键词
climate refugia; endemism; ensemble forecast; evolutionary diversity; extinction; phylogenetic diversity; range shift; species distribution modelling
资金
- CCEMC (Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation)
- ABMI (Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute)
- European Research Council (ERC) under the European Community [281422]
- ERC [ERC-2012-StG-310886-HISTFUNC]
- Rhone-Alpes region [CPER07_13 CIRA]
- OSUG@2020 labex of the programme Investissements d'Avenir [ANR10 LABX56]
- Equip@Meso project of the programme Investissements d'Avenir [ANR-10-EQPX-29-01]
Climate and land-use change are expected to substantially alter future plant species distributions leading to higher extinction rates. However, little is known about how plant species ranges, richness and phylogenetic diversity of continents will be affected by these dynamics. We address this gap here by examining the patterns of species' distributions and phylogenetic relationships for 7465 seed plant taxa in North America. An ensemble of species distribution models was used to estimate the potential suitable habitat of species under different sets of climate, land-use and dispersal constraint scenarios. We then evaluated the vulnerability and extinction risk of individual species to changes in climate and land use, and examined whether rare, endangered and evolutionarily distinct species were disproportionally threatened by climate and land-use change. We show that similar to 2000 species may lose >80% of their suitable habitats under the A1b emission scenario for the 2080s, while similar to 100 species may experience >80% range expansions (a 20:1 ratio of loss to gain). When considering >50% range retraction and expansion, the ratio of loss to gain was 13:1. A greater loss of species diversity is expected at low latitudes, while larger gains are expected at high latitudes. Evolutionarily distinct species are predicted to have significantly higher extinction risks than extant species. This suggests a disproportionate future loss of phylogenetic diversity for the North American flora.Synthesis and applications. Our study provides continental-scale evidence of plant species extinction risk caused by future climate and land-use change, and highlights the importance of integrating phylogenetic measures into conservation risk assessments. This work provides insight into the status, trends and threats for a large share of North America's plant species by identifying risks and prioritizing conservation in a rapidly changing world.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据