Predictions of sardine and the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem dynamics under future fishing, forced-biomass and SST scenarios

We used the Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model to assess the future effects of multiple stressors on sardine and the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem. We assessed individual and combined impacts of changes in sardine fishing pressure, biomass of sardine competitors and predators and sea surface temperature (SST). This study demonstrated that the greatest impact on sardine stock is caused by projected SST rise whose effect is dominant and detrimental to sardine stock regardless of other conditions, including sardine fishing at maximum sustainable yield (FMSY). The largest impact on ecosystem stability, maturity and diversity of flows was observed under the forced-biomass scenarios that simulate changes in biomass of sardine predators and competitors. Moreover, these stressors alongside FMSY are projected to play an important role in the future evolution of the sardine stock. Results presented in this study can assist long-term and strategic management of the Iberian sardine stock.

Automated summary

This study used an ecosystem model to assess the future effects of multiple stressors on sardine and the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem. The results showed that the greatest impact on sardine stock is caused by projected sea surface temperature rise. Changes in the biomass of sardine competitors and predators also had a significant impact on the ecosystem. These findings can assist in the long-term and strategic management of the Iberian sardine stock.