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Article
Economics
Stephen R. Barnes et al.
Summary: This study employs a regression discontinuity design to examine the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on traffic accidents. Using administrative data from Louisiana, the findings reveal a significant decrease (-47%) in the number of traffic accidents following the implementation of the lockdown order. The decline is observed in accidents involving injury (-46%) and ambulance (-41%). The study also identifies heterogeneous changes in the decline of drivers involved in accidents, with a smaller decline among individuals aged 25 to 64, male, and nonwhite drivers.
CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY
(2022)
Article
Political Science
Daniel L. Millimet et al.
Summary: This article discusses the impact of nonclassical measurement error, especially skewed measurement error, on estimation results and inference. The study finds that even relatively small amounts of skewed measurement error can lead to bias, especially in the presence of heteroscedasticity. The article also evaluates potential solutions to this problem and highlights the importance of considering skewed measurement error and appropriate solutions through simulations and replications.
POLITICAL ANALYSIS
(2022)
Article
Economics
Charles F. Manski et al.
Summary: Reported rates of infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates due to missing data and imperfect test accuracy, leading to higher reported rates of severe illness conditional on infection. Absence of reliable bounds on infection rates has hindered understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic's time path. The infection rate might be substantially higher than reported, and infection fatality rates in Illinois, New York, and Italy are actually lower than reported if assuming accurate reporting of deaths.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Ivan Korolev
Summary: This paper examines the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19 and finds that it is challenging to identify from observed deaths and confirmed cases, but the basic reproduction number R-0 can be determined from the data. The author proposes several nonlinear methods to estimate R-0, demonstrating their accuracy through Monte Carlo studies. The research also reveals heterogeneity in the value of R-0 across regions like the US, California, and Japan.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2021)
Article
Demography
Augusto Cerqua et al.
Summary: The study shows that estimates of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic can be more accurately predicted using supervised machine learning techniques compared to the official method, especially in smaller and medium-sized municipalities. The research provides insights into the demographic changes during the first wave of the pandemic in Italy and offers a freely available dataset to assist in diagnostic and monitoring efforts.
JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Ali Hortacsu et al.
Summary: This study develops a method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter, and utilizes this method to estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. The estimates of unreported infections are larger than the reported infections, and the study also provides estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Shaoran Li et al.
Summary: Researchers analyzed daily data on new cases and deaths reported to ECDC from 191 countries, using a quadratic time trend model to predict peak timing and levels, duration for cases to decrease by an order of magnitude, and total cases and deaths for each country. Two models were considered to link the joint evolution of new cases and deaths.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Victor Chernozhukov et al.
Summary: The study suggests that policies and information on transmission risks significantly impact the growth rates of Covid-19 cases and deaths. Nationally mandating face masks for employees early in the pandemic could have reduced cases and deaths, while the effects of school closures remain uncertain. The research emphasizes the importance of considering both policies and individual behavioral responses in combating the pandemic.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
(2021)
Article
Immunology
Heather Reese et al.
Summary: The study estimated that the number of laboratory-confirmed cases in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic was lower than the actual number, and provided preliminary estimates to indicate the societal and healthcare burdens. These estimates can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning.
CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2021)
Article
Management
Alecos Papadopoulos et al.
Summary: This study introduces a formal test method based on the standard deviation ratio of skewness and kurtosis to evaluate the specifications of the composite regression error term. After testing on a variety of well-known datasets, it is found that the classic distribution assumptions on many datasets are not rejected.
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Thiemo Fetzer et al.
Summary: This study examines a large-scale natural experiment in England where a coding error led to a breakdown in contact tracing, resulting in more illness and death. Conservative estimates suggest that proper contact tracing following the data glitch was associated with a significant reduction in subsequent new infections and COVID-19-related deaths.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Economics
Jose Olmo et al.
Summary: This study proposes an ensemble predictor for predicting the weekly increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases at the zip code level in New York City. Results indicate that various regression variables are important for predicting the number of new cases, and both pointwise and interval forecasts show strong predictive ability both in-sample and out-of-sample.
PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Economics
Austan Goolsbee et al.
Summary: The economic collapse in 2020 due to COVID-19 was mainly driven by individual consumer choices rather than government-imposed restrictions. Consumers voluntarily reduced outings due to fear of infection, shifting towards smaller and less crowded stores. Legal shutdown orders accounted for only a small portion of the massive changes in consumer behavior, with individual choices playing a far more significant role.
JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
(2021)
Article
Demography
Domenico Depalo
Summary: The study uses administrative data to estimate the number of deaths, infections, and mortality rates from COVID-19 in Lombardia, Italy. By applying partial identification, the author derives a range of admissible values or bounds, leading to the conclusion that there were between 10,000 and 18,500 more deaths in Lombardia during March 2020 compared to previous years, with mortality rates from COVID-19 ranging between 0.1% and 7.5%. This finding suggests that the situation in Lombardia may not be as unique as previously thought.
JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Marc F. Bellemare et al.
OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ruiyun Li et al.
Letter
Medicine, General & Internal
Desmond Sutton et al.
NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE
(2020)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Seth Flaxman et al.
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Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Jaime A. Teixeira da Silva et al.
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Multidisciplinary Sciences
Sean L. Wu et al.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2020)
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Computer Science, Information Systems
Ian McCulloh et al.
FRONTIERS IN BIG DATA
(2020)
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Economics
Christopher Avery et al.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
(2020)
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Economics
Eleanor J. Murray
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
(2020)
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Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Scott L. Greer et al.
GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH
(2020)
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Business
Subal C. Kumbhakar et al.
JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS
(2015)
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Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Cheryl L. Gibbons et al.
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Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Oleg Badunenko et al.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
(2012)
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Economics
Leopold Simar et al.
ECONOMETRIC REVIEWS
(2010)
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Immunology
Carrie Reed et al.
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2009)
