COVID-19 severity: A new approach to quantifying global cases and deaths

As the COVID-19 pandemic has progressed, so too has the recognition that cases and deaths have been underreported, perhaps vastly so. Here, we present an econometric strategy to estimate the true number ofCOVID-19 cases and deaths for 61 and 56 countries, respectively, from 1 January 2020 to 3 November 2020. Specifically, we estimate a 'structural' model based on the SIR epidemiological model extended to incorporate underreporting. The results indicate significant underreporting by magnitudes that alignwith existing research and conjectures by public health experts. While our approach requires some strong assumptions, these assumptions are very different from the equally strong assumptions required by other approaches addressing underreporting in the assessment of the extent of the pandemic. Thus, we view our approach as a complement to existing methods.

Automated summary

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, it is increasingly recognized that the reported cases and deaths have been significantly underestimated. This study presents an econometric strategy to estimate the true number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, incorporating underreporting, and finds substantial underreporting of cases.