Copper ore material footprints and transfers embodied in domestic and international trade of provinces in China

Copper is a critical material for development and plays a profound role in transitioning to a low-carbon future. China is the main copper consumer in recent decades that has a fast-growing domestic market accompanied by active international trade. Given the large regional differences within China, it is relevant to understand the domestic driving forces of copper demands and the cascading effects on international regions. Here we combine the newly developed copper ore extraction datasets and the Chinese interprovincial nested global multi-regional input-output models to explore the copper ore material footprints (CuMF), the interprovincial CuMF transfers, and the international CuMF transfers of provinces. Results show that at the initial stage of clean energy development (2007-2012), most provinces in China are, to a great degree (similar to 50%), relatively reliant on international copper inputs. The manufacturing sector is the main driving force of international CuMF transfers while the construction sector drives most interprovincial CuMF transfers, with the total volume of international CuMF transfers recently tripling. The central provinces in the industrial transition period and the northwestern provinces in the initial development stage saw the fastest growth in international and interprovincial CuMF transfers, respectively. The economic growth and low-carbon transition will further advance copper-related manufacturing and construction activities while other evidences indicate that the degree of foreign inputs to meet copper demand may peak and the interprovincial supply may rise continuously. Targeted governance of these sectors may effectively reduce high dependence on the international copper supply and ensure an efficient interprovincial CuMF transfer pattern.

Automated summary

China, as the main consumer of copper, has a significant impact on both domestic and international copper demands. The study reveals that during the initial stage of clean energy development, most provinces in China rely heavily on international copper inputs, and the manufacturing sector drives the international copper transfers. The economic growth and low-carbon transition will continue to drive copper-related activities in manufacturing and construction.