Spatial assessment of potential areas at risk from blueberry gall midge distribution in South Korea

Dasineura oxycoccana, the blueberry gall midge, has damaged domestic blueberry cultivation since its presence was confirmed in Korea. In this study, the domestic climatic suitability of D. oxycoccana was evaluated using the CLIMEX model, which comprehensively integrates the species biology and regional climate. In addition, we derived the risk posed to major areas of blueberry cultivation by considering the domestic potential distribution of D. oxycoccana based on climatic suitability D. oxycoccana showed the highest occurrence suitability on the southern coast under the current climate, and its population is expected to gradually increase inland due to climate change. Jeju and the southern coast were the major areas that were presently found to be at risk from D. oxycoccana; the area at risk from D. oxycoccana is expected to extend to southern Gyeonggi-do and Ganwon-do by 2040 and 2060, respectively. D. oxycoccana was predicted to occur throughout the country according to climate change, suggesting increase in its infestation in blueberry cultivation. Therefore, we expected this study provides precautionary evaluation for monitoring and controlling the pest.

Automated summary

This study evaluated the climatic suitability of Dasineura oxycoccana and assessed the risk it poses to blueberry cultivation areas in South Korea. The results indicated that the southern coast is currently the most suitable region for the occurrence of D. oxycoccana, and its population is expected to increase inland due to climate change. Jeju and the southern coast are currently at risk, and by 2040 and 2060, the risk is projected to spread to southern Gyeonggi-do and Ganwon-do, respectively. This study provides a precautionary evaluation for monitoring and controlling the pest.