Projected ENSO Teleconnection Changes in CMIP6

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains is a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) and Precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high-emission future simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find significant future (2081-2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% of teleconnected regions in December-February relative to 1950-2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level, with higher warming leading to larger teleconnection changes.

Automated summary

This study investigates the potential changes in teleconnections of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to future climate change. The majority of regions show an amplification of teleconnections, while some regions display a dampening effect. Furthermore, the magnitude of these teleconnection changes is correlated with the projected warming level.