Stereo Plume Height and Motion Retrievals for the Record-Setting Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption of 15 January 2022

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Ensemble-Based Forecast of Volcanic Clouds Using FALL3D-8.1

Arnau Folch et al.

Summary: Operational forecasting of volcanic ash and SO2 clouds faces uncertainties. The FALL3D-8.1 model implements an ensemble-based forecast strategy to generate deterministic and probabilistic products. Comparisons with observation datasets show that ensemble-based approaches outperform single-run simulations, but it is inconclusive which is the best option between the two.

FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Data assimilation of volcanic aerosol observations using FALL3D+PDAF

Leonardo Mingari et al.

Summary: Modelling the dispersal of volcanic ash and aerosols is crucial for assessing the impacts of volcanic eruptions on various aspects. Quantitative forecasting of volcanic ash is beneficial for managing volcanic risk and reducing aviation impacts. However, accurate predictions rely on proper estimations of multiple model parameters and uncertainties in these parameters can lead to errors in the forecast quality. Utilizing geostationary satellite observations can improve forecasts by assimilating the observations into numerical models. This study presents a new implementation of ensemble-based data assimilation to improve forecast quality for volcanic ash.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Geometric estimation of volcanic eruption column height from GOES-R near-limb imagery - Part 1: Methodology

Akos Horvath et al.

Summary: A geometric technique is introduced to estimate the height of volcanic eruption columns using discarded near-limb portion of geostationary imagery. This method is best suited for strong eruption columns with minimal radial tilt, and has shown typical height uncertainty of +/- 500 m for near-vertical columns, comparable to the accuracy of the common temperature method.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Geometric estimation of volcanic eruption column height from GOES-R near-limb imagery - Part 2: Case studies

Akos Horvath et al.

Summary: The new technique accurately estimates volcanic eruption column height and is not affected by the limitations of traditional methods. Side view height estimates are consistent with ground-based video and satellite observations, serving as a useful complement to established techniques.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences