Lower heating value of jet fuel from hydrocarbon class concentration data and thermo-chemical reference data: An uncertainty quantification

A detailed assessment is presented on the calculation and uncertainty of the lower heating value (net heat of combustion) of conventional and sustainable aviation fuels, from hydrocarbon class concentration measurements, reference molecular heats of formation, and the uncertainties of these reference heats of formation. Calculations using this paper's method and estimations using ASTM D3338 are reported for 17 fuels of diverse compositions and compared against reported ASTM D4809 measurements. All the calculations made by this method and the reported ASTM D4809 measurements agree (i.e., within 95% confidence intervals). The 95% confidence interval of the lower heating value of fuel candidates that are comprised entirely of normal- and isoalkanes is less than 0.1 MJ/kg by the method described here, while high cyclo-alkane content leads to 95% confidence bands that approach 0.2 MJ/kg. Taking a possible bias into account, the accuracy and precision of the method described in this work could be as high as 0.23 MJ/kg for some samples.

Automated summary

A detailed assessment is presented on the calculation and uncertainty of the lower heating value of conventional and sustainable aviation fuels. The study compares calculations using the method described in this paper with measurements using ASTM D4809, and finds consistent results within 95% confidence intervals. The method described in this work exhibits high accuracy and precision for different fuel compositions.