Expected effects of climate change on the production and water use of crop rotation management reproduced by crop model ensemble for Czech Republic sites

Crop rotation, fertilization and residue management affect the water balance and crop production and can lead to different sensitivities to climate change. To assess the impacts of climate change on crop rotations (CRs), the crop model ensemble (APSIM,AQUACROP, CROPSYST, DAISY, DSSAT, HERMES, MONICA) was used. The yields and water balance of two CRs with the same set of crops (winter wheat, silage maize, spring barley and winter rape) in a continuous transient run from 1961 to 2080 were simulated. CR1 was without cover crops and without manure application. Straw after the harvest was exported from the fields. CR2 included cover crops, manure application and crop residue retention left on field. Simulations were performed using two soil types (Chernozem, Cambisol) within three sites in the Czech Republic, which represent temperature and precipitation gradients for crops in Central Europe. For the description of future climatic conditions, seven climate scenarios were used. Six of them had increasing CO & nbsp;concentrations according RCP 8.5, one had no CO2 increase in the future. The output of an ensemble expected higher productivity by 0.82 t/ha/year and 2.04 t/ha/year for yields and aboveground biomass in the future (2051-2080). However, if the direct effect of a CO2 increase is not considered, the average yields for lowlands will be lower. Compared to CR1, CR2 showed higher average yields of 1.26 t/ha/year for current climatic conditions and 1.41 t/ha/year for future climatic conditions. For the majority of climate change scenarios, the crop model ensemble agrees on the projected yield increase in C3 crops in the future for CR2 but not for CR1. Higher agreement for future yield increases was found for Chernozem, while for Cambisol, lower yields under dry climate scenarios are expected. For silage maize, changes in simulated yields depend on locality. If the same hybrid will be used in the future, then yield reductions should be expected within lower altitudes. The results indicate the potential for higher biomass production from cover crops, but CR2 is associated with almost 120 mm higher evapotranspiration compared to that of CR1 over a 5-year cycle for lowland stations in the future, which in the case of the rainfed agriculture could affect the long-term soil water balance. This could affect groundwater replenishment, especially for locations with fine textured soils, although the findings of this study highlight the potential for the soil water-holding capacity to buffer against the adverse weather conditions.

Automated summary

Crop rotation, fertilization, and residue management have an impact on water balance and crop production. Simulations show that using cover crops, applying manure, and retaining crop residue can increase crop yields under future climate conditions. However, this also leads to higher evapotranspiration, which may affect soil water balance and groundwater replenishment.