期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
卷 29, 期 36, 页码 54330-54347出版社
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-19631-y
关键词
MaxEnt; Current suitable habitat; Future suitable habitat; Climate refugia; RCP4; 5 & RCP8; 5
资金
- NSFC (Natural Science Foundation of China) [41671183, 41271194]
- Rufford small grant [27847-1]
The rise in global temperature poses a major threat to species extinction, particularly in the northern highlands of Pakistan. Climate change significantly impacts the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including indicator species. The study shows that these species are predicted to shift towards higher altitudes, resulting in a reduction of suitable habitat.
The rise in global temperature is one of the main threats of extinction to many vulnerable species by the twenty-first century. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha, and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current (average for 1960-1990) and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (ii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to average lose around one-third (35%) in 2050 and one-half (47%) by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iii) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily > 3000 m in the future. Our results help inform management plans and conservation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on three indicator Galliforms species in the NHP.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据