Designing a new multi-echelon multi-period closed-loop supply chain network by forecasting demand using time series model: a genetic algorithm

Demand plays a vital role in designing every closed-loop supply chain network in today's world. The flow of materials and commodities in the opposite direction of the standard supply chain is inevitable. In this way, this study addresses a new multi-echelon multi-period closed-loop supply chain network to minimize the total costs of the network. The echelons include suppliers, manufacturers, distribution centers, customers, and recycling and recovery units of components in the proposed network. Also, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model considering factories' vehicles and rental cars of transportation companies is formulated for the proposed problem. Moreover, for the first time, the demand for the products is estimated using an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model to decrease the shortage that may happen in the whole supply chain network. Conversely, for solving the proposed model, the GAMS software is utilized in small and medium-size problems, and also, genetic algorithm is applied for large-size problems to obtain initial results of the model. Numerical results show that the proposed model is closer to the actual situation and could reach a reasonable solution in terms of service level, shortage, etc. Accordingly, sensitivity analysis is performed on essential parameters to show the performance of the proposed model. Finally, some potential topics are discussed for future study.

Automated summary

This study proposes a new multi-echelon multi-period model for designing closed-loop supply chain networks, aiming to optimize the networks by minimizing total costs. The model considers multiple levels, including suppliers, manufacturers, distribution centers, customers, and recycling units. The study also applies an ARIMA model to estimate product demand and improve service levels in the supply chain network.