Can China achieve its climate pledge: a multi-scenario simulation of China's energy-related CO2 emission pathways based on Kaya identity

China is currently in the process of the middle and late stage of industrialization, and energy-related CO2 emissions have reached 10 Gt. This paper models energy consumption and related CO2 emissions and analyzes the development trends of various driving factors of CO2 emissions, explicitly considering China's economic and social development goals in the medium- and long-term. Different scenarios for 2020-2060 are projected based on the Kaya identity. Energy consumption will peak at 6,200 Mtce in 2035 in the BAU scenario with the energy-related CO2 emissions peaking at 11.1 Gt in 2026-2027 advanced by the rising non-fossil energy share, while energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the accelerated transition scenario would be potentially reduced by 300 Mtce and 300-400 Mt respectively. In the BAU scenario, the net CO2 emissions will remain around 2,000 Mt in 2060, after removing 1,800 Mt by CCS/CCUS, indicating that China needs to enhance its post-2030 policy to deliver the carbon neutrality pledge. Steady energy efficiency improvement, radical industrial and energy restructuring are three key driving forces for carbon neutrality.

Automated summary

This paper analyzes the development trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China, taking into account the country's economic and social development goals. The study forecasts different scenarios for energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to 2060, and suggests that China needs to enhance its post-2030 policy to achieve carbon neutrality. The three key driving forces for carbon neutrality identified in the study are steady energy efficiency improvement, radical industrial and energy restructuring.