期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
卷 29, 期 40, 页码 60662-60673出版社
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-19328-2
关键词
Economic policy uncertainty; Commodity market; COVID-19; Resource policy; Markov switching model
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, commodity prices have experienced significant drops, and the study suggests that economic policy uncertainty plays a significant role in influencing commodity markets, especially in high-volatility regimes.
As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, most commodities experienced significant price drops, which were expected to continue well into 2020. As a result, the Markov switching model is used to study the influence of policy uncertainty and the COVID-19 pandemic on commodity prices in the USA. Commodity markets are stimulated by economic policy uncertainty, according to results from a two-state Markov switching model. In both high and low regimes, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences the commodity market, according to the study's findings. However, in the high regime, EPU has a greater influence on the energy and metal sectors. EPU has different influences on commodity markets in high- and low-volatility regimes, according to this study. There is a wide range of correlations between COVID-19 outcomes and EPU and how the prices of natural gas, oil, corn, silver, soybean, copper, gold, and steel respond to these tremors, in both high- and low-volatility tenure. Oil and natural gas, on the other hand, are unaffected by shifts in COVID-19 death rates under either regime. Results show that in both high- and low-volatility regimes, the demand and supply for most commodities are responsive to historical prices.
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