Intra-regional renewable energy resource variability in long-term energy system planning

This article presents a framework to capture intra-regional spatial variation of solar and wind resources' potential for long-term energy system planning. Geographic Information System and statistical tools are utilized to quantify class and time slice wise capacity and generation potential at a geographical grid-cell level. This is incorporated in an energy system planning model with high spatial and temporal resolution. An advanced bottom-up energy system modeling framework is used to develop the model. The North-Indian power sector is considered as a case study with the analysis of renewable energy penetration and curtailment levels, technology capacity, and role of storage and inter-regional energy exchange for many future energy transition scenarios. Various model cases indicate system transition towards high renewable energy penetrated generation portfolio. Solar energy curtailment is prominent in high renewable scenarios. Coal-based power plants are important generation options unless drastic high CO2 price is considered. Storage systems work as energy arbitrage devices. Quantifying intra-regional renewable energy capacity and generation potential and incorporating them in a long-term planning model with many annual time slices is a contribution to the current modeling practices. Analysis of varied sensitivity cases adds value to long-term large-scale variable renewable energy integration planning approaches. (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This article presents a framework for capturing the spatial variation of solar and wind resources' potential within a region, which is useful for long-term energy system planning. The study utilizes Geographic Information System and statistical tools to quantify capacity and generation potential at the geographical grid-cell level. This information is incorporated into a high-resolution energy system planning model using an advanced bottom-up energy system modeling framework. The study focuses on the power sector in North India and analyzes the penetration and curtailment levels of renewable energy, technology capacity, and the role of storage and inter-regional energy exchange in various future energy transition scenarios. The results indicate a transition towards a high penetration of renewable energy in the generation portfolio, with solar energy curtailment being prominent in scenarios with high renewable energy penetration. Coal-based power plants remain important unless there is a high CO2 price. Storage systems function as energy arbitrage devices. The quantification of intra-regional renewable energy capacity and generation potential, as well as its incorporation into a long-term planning model with multiple annual time slices, contributes to current modeling practices. The analysis of different sensitivity cases adds value to long-term large-scale variable renewable energy integration planning approaches.