期刊
ECOLOGY LETTERS
卷 25, 期 3, 页码 673-685出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13830
关键词
climate change; ecological forecasting; ecosystem function; functional diversity; functional traits; range-shift modelling
类别
资金
- UK Natural Environment Research Council [NE/I028068/1, NE/P004512/1]
- German Federal Ministry for Education and Research [FKZ 01LS1617A]
- Bavarian Ministry of Science and the Arts via the Bavarian Climate Research Network
- German Research Foundation [HO 3952/3-1]
The study, using morphometric and ecological traits data of bird species, found that climate change may lead to significant shifts in avian functional diversity in the future, impacting ecosystem function and resilience.
Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts, leading to fluctuations in species richness (SR) worldwide. However, the effect of these changes on functional diversity (FD) remains unclear, in part because comprehensive species-level trait data are generally lacking at global scales. Here, we use morphometric and ecological traits for 8268 bird species to estimate the impact of climate change on avian FD. We show that future bird assemblages are likely to undergo substantial shifts in trait structure, with a magnitude of change greater than predicted from SR alone, and a direction of change varying according to geographical location and trophic guild. For example, our models predict that FD of insect predators will increase at higher latitudes with concurrent losses at mid-latitudes, whereas FD of seed dispersing birds will fluctuate across the tropics. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to drive continental-scale shifts in avian FD with implications for ecosystem function and resilience.
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