Prediction and valuation of ecosystem service based on land use/land cover change: A case study of the Pearl River Delta

In recent decades, land use/land cover change caused by rapid economic development has led to a sharp decline in the values of ecosystem service. Based on the land use/land cover change images of the PRD in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, the land use change was analyzed and the corresponding Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) were evaluated. In addition, a future land use simulation model was developed to simulate multiple scenarios in 2030. The results show that the area of construction land increased nearly 166.05% from 1990 to 2020, and the total ESVs decreased by 11.20 billion yuan. The contribution order of the four types ecosystem service to ESVs is regulating services > supporting services > provisioning services > cultural services. Compared with 2020, the values of ecosystem service of all the five scenarios shows a downward trend, and the order is the Ecological protection scenario (EPS) > the Natural development Scenario (NDS) > the Carbon neutral scenario (CNS) > the Production priority scenario (PPS) > the Economic development scenario (EDS). The CNS may be the most suitable scenario for the PRD region among the five scenarios.

Automated summary

In recent decades, rapid economic development has led to a decline in ecosystem service values due to land use/land cover change. This study analyzed the land use change and evaluated the corresponding Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) based on the land use/land cover change images of the PRD from 1990 to 2020. A future land use simulation model was also developed to simulate multiple scenarios in 2030. The results showed a significant increase in construction land area and a decrease in total ESVs. The study also ranked the contribution order of different ecosystem services and compared the values of ecosystem service in different scenarios.