Age-Specific Changes in Virulence Associated With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants of Concern

Background Novel variants of concern (VOCs) have been associated with both increased infectivity and virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is closely linked to age. Whether relative increases in virulence of novel VOCs are similar across the age spectrum or are limited to some age groups is unknown. Methods We created a retrospective cohort of people in Ontario, Canada, who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were screened for VOCs (n = 259 984) between 7 February 2021 and 31 October 2021. Cases were classified as N501Y-positive VOC, probable Delta VOC, or VOC undetected. We constructed age-specific logistic regression models to evaluate associations between N501Y-postive or Delta VOC infections and infection severity using hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death as outcome variables. Models were adjusted for sex, comorbidity, vaccination status, and temporal trends. Results Infection with either N501Y-positive or Delta VOCs was associated with significant elevations in risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death across age groups compared with infections where a VOC was not detected. The Delta VOC increased hospitalization risk in children aged <10 years by a factor of 2.5 (adjusted odds ratio; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.0) compared with non-VOCs. There was a significant inverse relationship between age and relative increase in risk of death with the Delta VOC, with younger age groups showing a greater relative increase in risk of death than older individuals. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 VOCs appear to be associated with increased relative virulence of infection in all age groups, though low absolute numbers of outcomes in younger individuals make estimates in these groups imprecise. Variants of concern for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 have been associated with overall increases in virulence. We found that variants with the N501Y mutation, as well as Delta variants, increase the severity of illness in both younger and older age groups.

Automated summary

The study found that the variants of concern for SARS-CoV-2 may increase the relative virulence of infection in all age groups, although estimates in younger individuals may be imprecise due to low absolute numbers of outcomes. Variants with the N501Y mutation as well as the Delta variant both increase the severity of illness in both younger and older age groups.