A periodic Chikungunya model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission

In this paper, a Chikungunya dynamical model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission is developed, which incorporates the effect of seasonal temperature changes on disease transmission through time-dependent parameters. Firstly, the threshold parameter (Rm) that determines the persistence and ex -0 tinction of mosquito populations is given, and then the disease reproduction number R-0 is defined. Sec-ondly, it is proved that if (R-0(m)) > 1 and R-0 < 1, the disease disappears; if (R-0(m)) > 1 and R-0 > 1, then 0 0 Chikungunya with mutants and non-mutants will persist simultaneously. Finally, a case study is carried out with the data in Kerala, India, where the virus mutation causes the outbreak of Chikungunya. Data on newly confirmed human cases in the state between 2007 and 2010 is fitted and the theoretical results obtained in the previous section are validated. In addition, the effects of seasonal temperature change, virus mutation and transovarial transmission on the prevalence of the disease are studied by numerical simulations from different aspects. 2020 MSC: 34K13; 37N25; 92D30.(C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

In this paper, a dynamical model for Chikungunya with virus mutation and transovarial transmission is developed, taking into account the impact of seasonal temperature changes on disease transmission. The conditions for the persistence or extinction of the disease are determined, and the effects of different factors on disease prevalence are studied through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations.