Optimizing Infant HIV Diagnosis in Resource-Limited Settings: Modeling the Impact of HIV DNA PCR Testing at Birth

Background: Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in HIV-infected infants significantly improves survival but is often delayed in resource-limited settings. Adding HIV testing of infants at birth to the current recommendation of testing at age 4-6 weeks may improve testing rates and decrease time to ART initiation. We modeled the benefit of adding HIV testing at birth to the current 6-week testing algorithm. Methods: Microsoft Excel was used to create a decision-tree model of the care continuum for the estimated 1,400,000 HIV-infected women and their infants in sub-Saharan Africa in 2012. The model assumed average published rates for facility births (42.9%), prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission utilization (63%), mother-to-child-transmission rates based on prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission regimen (5%-40%), return of test results (41%), enrollment in HIV care (52%), and ART initiation (54%). We conducted sensitivity analyses to model the impact of key variables and applied the model to specific country examples. Results: Adding HIV testing at birth would increase the number of infants on ART by 204% by age 18 months. The greatest increase is seen in early ART initiations (543% by age 3 months). The increase would lead to a corresponding increase in survival at 12 months of age, with 5108 fewer infant deaths (44,550, versus 49,658). Conclusion: Adding HIV testing at birth has the potential to improve the number and timing of ART initiation of HIV-infected infants, leading to a decrease in infant mortality. Using this model, countries should investigate a combination of HIV testing at birth and during the early infant period.